<p>Local chapters of the <a href=”https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/us/extremism-capitol-riot.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, Groypers and others</a> are breaking away from their groups’ national figureheads. For instance, some local Proud Boys chapters have been <a href=”https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/02/12/proud-boys-splintering-after-capitol-riot-revelations-leader/6709017002/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>explicitly cutting ties</a> with national leader Enrique Tarrio, the group’s chairman.</p><p>Tarrio was arrested on federal weapons charges in the days before the insurrection, but he has also been revealed as a <a href=”https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-proudboys-leader-exclusive/exclusive-proud-boys-leader-was-prolific-informer-for-law-enforcement-idUSKBN29W1PE” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>longtime FBI informant</a>. He reportedly aided authorities in a variety of criminal cases, including those involving <a href=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/proud-boys-enrique-tarrio-fbi-informer/2021/01/27/21c1df0e-60be-11eb-9430-e7c77b5b0297_story.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>drug sales, gambling and human smuggling</a> – though he has not yet been connected with cases against Proud Boys members.</p><p>When a leader of a far-right group or street gang leaves, regardless of the reason, it is common for a <a href=”https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1038106″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>struggle to emerge</a> among remaining members who seek to consolidate power. That can result in violence spilling over into the community as groups attempt to reshape themselves.</p><p>While some of the splinter Proud Boys chapters will likely maintain the Proud Boys brand, at least for the time being, others may evolve and become more radicalized. <a href=”https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjpb5q/for-some-joining-the-proud-boys-was-a-stop-on-the-way-to-neo-nazi-terror” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>The Base, a neo-Nazi terror group</a>, has recruited from among the ranks of Proud Boys. As the Proud Boys sheds affiliates, it would not be surprising for those with <a href=”https://www.vice.com/en/article/wx8xp4/a-proud-boys-lawyer-wanted-to-be-a-nazi-terrorist” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>more enthusiasm</a> about hateful activism to seek out more extreme groups. Less committed groups will wither away.</p><p><strong>How does that response compare with what happened after 2017’s ‘Unite the Right’ rally in Charlottesville?</strong></p><p>Neither the Capitol insurrection nor the Charlottesville rally produced the response from mainstream America that far-right groups had hoped for. Rather than rising up in a groundswell of support, most Americans were appalled – some so much that they have <a href=”https://www.npr.org/2021/02/01/962246187/spurred-by-the-capitol-riot-thousands-of-republicans-drop-their-party” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>abandoned the Republican Party</a>.</p><p>Additionally, right-wingers have been hit hard by the post-insurrection actions by <a href=”https://www.axios.com/trump-social-media-bans-twitter-facebook-parler-d8e985e0-0c59-4386-95c7-a2aa3ff0096e.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>large technology companies</a> like Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Google and Amazon. They took down far-right group members’ accounts and removed right-wing social media platforms, including <a href=”https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/company/2020/suspension.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>permanently blacklisting Donald Trump’s Twitter account</a> and <a href=”https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-was-parler-shut-down-heres-why-the-social-network-is-offline-11610478890″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>temporarily blocking all traffic to Parler, a conservative social media platform</a>. Those steps are <a href=”https://www.wired.com/story/parler-bans-new-chapter-free-speech-wars/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>more significant</a> than earlier moderation and algorithm changes those companies had undertaken in previous efforts to curb online extremism.</p><p>Another major difference is the lack of regret. Nobody on the right wanted to be associated with Charlottesville after it happened. Figureheads of the far right who had <a href=”http://idavox.com/index.php/2017/08/26/the-internet-never-forgets-how-gavin-mcinnis-attempts-to-delete-charlottesville-support-message-but-cant/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>initially promoted that rally</a> saw the negative public reaction and <a href=”https://theintercept.com/2017/09/21/gavin-mcinnes-alt-right-proud-boys-richard-spencer-charlottesville/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>distanced themselves, even condemning</a> the “Unite the Right” rally.</p><p>After the insurrection at the Capitol, their response was different. They did not split and blame other right-wing groups. Instead, conservative and extreme-right circles have united behind a <a href=”https://www.npr.org/2021/03/02/972564176/antifa-didnt-storm-the-capitol-just-ask-the-rioters” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>false claim that they did nothing wrong</a>, and alleged, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that <a href=”https://theconversation.com/the-far-right-rioters-at-the-capitol-were-not-antifa-but-violent-groups-often-blame-rivals-for-unpopular-attacks-153193″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>left-wing activists assaulted the Capitol</a> – while disguised as right-wingers.</p><p><strong>Are extremist groups attracting new members?</strong></p><p>Some members have left extremist groups in the wake of the Jan. 6 violence. The members who remain, and the new members they are attracting, are <a href=”https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/opinion/domestic-terrorism-far-right-insurrection.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>increasing the radicalization of far-right groups</a>. As the less committed members abandon these far-right groups, only the more devout remain. Such a <a href=”https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/3/3/2019262/-Warning-of-III-militia-plot-fueled-by-March-4-conspiracy-theories-induces-House-to-shut-down” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>shift is going to alter the subculture</a> of these groups, driving them farther to the right. We expect this <a href=”https://www.project-syndicate.org/podcasts/the-growing-threat-of-far-right-extremism” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>polarization will only accelerate the reactionary behaviors and extremist tendencies</a> of these far-right groups.</p><p><a href=”https://www.npr.org/2021/01/23/959884145/how-conservative-media-has-covered-bidens-first-days-as-president” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Right-wing pundits</a> and <a href=”https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-washington-military-occupation-liberal-fear” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>conservative media</a> are continuing to stoke fears about the Biden administration. We and other observers of right-wing groups expect that extremists will come to see <a href=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/08/capitol-mob-far-right-trump-propaganda/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>the events of Jan. 6 as just the opening skirmish in a modern civil war</a>. We anticipate they will continue to seek an end to American democracy and the beginning of a new society free – or even purged – of <a href=”https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/19/magazine/boogaloo.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>groups the right wing fears</a>, including immigrants, Jewish people, nonwhites, LGBTQ people and those who value multiculturalism.</p><p>We expect that these groups will continue to <a href=”https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2021/01/22/capitol-insurrection-shows-how-trends-far-rights-fringe-have-become-mainstream” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>shift more and more to the extreme right</a>, posing risks for acts of violence both large and small.</p><p><strong>Have far-right extremists’ views toward the police changed?</strong></p><p>With a Democratic administration and attorney general, the far right will no longer view federal law enforcement agencies as friendly, the way they did under the <a href=”https://www.businessinsider.com/capitol-riot-exposes-far-right-police-officers-longstanding-issue-2021-1″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Trump administration</a>. Rather, they <a href=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/capitol-police-officers-support/2021/01/08/a16e07a2-51da-11eb-83e3-322644d82356_story.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>view the police as the enemy</a>.</p><p>Even before Joe Biden took office and the Republicans officially lost control of the U.S. Senate, the Capitol riot showed this divide between right-wing extremists and police. A Capitol Police officer was assaulted with a <a href=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/11/police-beating-capitol-mob/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>flagpole bearing an American flag</a>, and some members of the mob were <a href=”https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2021/0114/Capitol-assault-Why-did-police-show-up-on-both-sides-of-thin-blue-line” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>police officers and military personnel</a>. Many more were <a href=”https://www.npr.org/2021/01/21/958915267/nearly-one-in-five-defendants-in-capitol-riot-cases-served-in-the-military” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>military veterans</a>.</p><p>It’s not clear what this different view of law enforcement means for police officers, active-duty military and veterans who are members of right-wing groups. But we anticipate that only those who are most zealously committed to far-right causes will remain active. That, in turn, will push those groups <a href=”https://theconversation.com/armed-groups-from-capitol-riot-pose-longer-term-threat-to-biden-presidency-153580″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>even farther to the extreme right</a>.</p><p><strong>Has anything changed for militias since Biden has become president?</strong></p><p>In 2009, the <a href=”https://fas.org/irp/eprint/rightwing.pdf” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Department of Homeland Security issued a report warning</a> about the growing membership in far-right groups, including their active recruitment of military veterans. Shortly after the report was released, <a href=”https://www.wired.com/2012/08/dhs/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Republicans in Congress</a> pushed for the <a href=”https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781633885165/Hateland-A-Long-Hard-Look-at-America%27s-Extremist-Heart” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>report to be retracted</a> and for <a href=”https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/intelligence-report/2011/inside-dhs-former-top-analyst-says-agency-bowed-political-pressure” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>dramatically reducing the federal effort</a> to monitor far-right groups in the U.S. This permissive atmosphere allowed far-right groups to grow and spread nationwide.</p><p>The Trump administration further served far-right groups by failing to pay out <a href=”https://time.com/5944085/far-right-extremism-biden/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>federal grants for grassroots counterviolence programs</a>, by <a href=”https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/trump-shut-countering-violent-extremism-program/574237/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>refusing to help</a> local law enforcement agencies with equipment or training to deal with these groups, and by routinely <a href=”https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/26/trump-domestic-extemism-homeland-security-401926″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>downplaying the violence</a> perpetrated by these white power groups. Essentially, far-right groups were unpoliced for the past decade or more.</p><p>But that approach has ended. Merrick Garland’s appointment as Biden’s attorney general is a big signal: In his career at the Department of Justice before becoming a federal judge, <a href=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/merrick-garland-oklahoma-city-bombing/2021/02/19/a9e6adde-67f2-11eb-8468-21bc48f07fe5_story.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Garland supervised the investigations of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing and the 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing</a>.</p><p>These were two of the most noteworthy acts of far-right domestic terrorism in the nation’s history. Garland has said that he will make fighting right-wing violence and attacks on democracy <a href=”https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/539885-garland-pledges-to-prioritize-domestic-terrorism-battle” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>major priorities of his tenure</a> at the head of the Justice Department.</p><p>In January, Canada designated the <a href=”https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkdw8z/what-canadas-terror-laws-mean-for-proud-boys” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Proud Boys and other right-wing groups as terrorist organizations</a>, which puts pressure on U.S. law enforcement to reconsider how they <a href=”https://theconversation.com/designating-the-proud-boys-a-terrorist-organization-wont-stop-hate-fuelled-violence-154709″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>evaluate, investigate and prosecute</a> these extremist groups. Beyond law enforcement’s treating these far-right groups like <a href=”https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/03/the-proud-boys-are-a-far-right-gang-trump-boosted-them-on-national-tv” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>street gangs</a>, there are also laws in place to combat <a href=”https://www.insider.com/canada-is-considering-labeling-proud-boys-a-terrorist-organization-2021-1″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>violence associated with domestic terrorism</a>.</p><p>It appears that U.S. prosecutors may finally begin to take seriously the violent actions of Proud Boys, especially as more and more members are being charged with coordinating the <a href=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/proud-boys-leader-capitol-riot/2021/03/02/0ca15138-7aed-11eb-85cd-9b7fa90c8873_story.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>breach of the U.S. Capitol Building</a>.</p><p>But as police power comes to bear on these violent right-wing groups, many of their members remain at least as radicalized as they were on Jan. 6 — if not more so. Some may feel that <a href=”https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/03/militia-armed-uprising-biden-bundy-haaland-interior.html” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>more extreme measures</a> are needed to resist the <a href=”https://www.newsweek.com/qanon-theorists-switch-date-march-20-after-no-trump-inauguration-call-4th-false-flag-1573871″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Biden administration</a>.</p><p><a href=”https://theconversation.com/profiles/matthew-valasik-527390″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Matthew Valasik</a>, Associate Professor of Sociology, <em><a href=”https://theconversation.com/institutions/louisiana-state-university-1642″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Louisiana State University </a></em> and <a href=”https://theconversation.com/profiles/shannon-reid-605116″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>Shannon Reid</a>, Associate Professor of Criminal Justice and Criminology, <em><a href=”https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-north-carolina-charlotte-2747″ rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>University of North Carolina – Charlotte</a></em></p><p>This article is republished from <a href=”https://theconversation.com/” rel=”noopener noreferrer” target=”_blank”>The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license.</p>
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